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What the Pats Can Do If/When Martin is Gone
by Clint Mills (3/24/1998)

Contingency plan...

As I speculated last Friday when the offer sheet was first signed, the Pats have asked the NFL to take a closer look at the offer sheet. The Pats want to know exactly what it is that they need to match. The deal reportedly is very complex, and a ruling on it may be delayed until after the matching deadline of Friday the 27th. At this time, the NFL has not granted the Pats an extension on the deadline, which means the Pats would have to match or let Martin go based on what they THINK the ruling on the contract will be.

The basic contract is a 5 year $27 Million deal, which includes a club option for a 6th year at $9 Million, bringing the total potential package to 6 years $36 Million. After signing with either team, Martin would have until April 15th to decide if he wants to exercise an escape clause which would make the deal a one year $4 Million pact. The offer sheet also stipulates that after 1 year, the team cannot designate Martin as the franchise player, which would make him an unrestricted Free Agent going into 1999, where teams like the expansion Browns would have all sorts of money to throw at Martin.

Should the Pats match the deal, and the NFL rules that the contract is valid as written after the match, the Pats are screwed if Martin opts for the 1 year deal. Not only would the Pats have passed on New York's 1st and 3rd round picks, but Martin would only be their property for one more year and then walk. Not only would the Pats need to replace him, but all of Martin's large (unreported) signing bonus would count against the team's 1999 cap numbers, crippling the team's salary structure. Of course, this situation is even worse for the Jets. Should Tuna surrender the draft picks, and Martin walks after 1 year, the Jets will be without young talent via the '98 draft, and will also have major cap problems. Should Martin take the 5 year deal with the club option, the Jets would fair much better than the Pats due to the Jets current cap situation.

Martin is perhaps worth $27 Million over 5 years to the Jets, but not to the Pats. New England has already contacted the Bears, Ravens, and Eagles who own the 5th, 10th, and 11th choices respectively. The Pat's target is running back Curtis Enis out of Penn State. At 6 feet, 247 pounds, he is a Bettis like power back w/out all the body fat. Despite his big frame, Enis runs a 4.55 40 yard dash, which is a shade slower than Martin. All of the major draft publications have Enis rated as the top back available, and although only a Junior, Joe Paterno called Enis the best back he has ever coached at Penn State. Remember, however, that Enis is a "could be," while Martin is a proven commodity. Enis does not have the health concerns of Martin, however.

As a top 10 pick, Enis would likely average $1.5 to $2 Million per year over 3 or 4 years in his first contract. That is a LOT cheaper than Martin, which allows the Pats room under the cap to hang on to Ted Johnson, Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, and Terry Glenn once their contracts are up. Inking Martin to even the 5 year deal would prohibit many of those players from wearing Patriot's blue after next season.

Given the choices in front of them, I consider Curtis Martin to already be a New York Jet. The 1st and 3rd round picks acquired would not be around for long, as the Pats would undoubtedly package them with other picks, and/or Brisby or Todd Rucci and move up to the #5 slot. In the best case scenario, the Pats grab Curtis Enis, and Curtis Martin opts for a 1 year deal with the Jets, which would REALLY leave the Tuna with egg on his face, and Bob Kraft with the last laugh, which in case you've forgotten is always the best laugh.

Isn't this fun?