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The AFC East Race - as of 12/7/1998
by Clint Mills

Making sense of it all...

With just three games left in the season, there are still an infinite number of possibilities in the AFC East. With all 4 teams in contention winning last Sunday, there exists a very real possibility that the AFC East will send 4 teams to the playoffs. The top two teams would host the other two in week one while Denver and Jacksonville look on.

Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Oakland are all still alive, but all three have tiebreakers working against them vs. the AFC East clubs. Pittsburgh has lost to both Miami and New England, and Tennessee has lost to New England and the Jets. Oakland lost to Miami last week, and next travels to face the Bills. Any three of these teams, all currently at 7-6, would have to win their final three games and still count on some help. Looking at their remaining schedules, it does not look good for any of them.

To put it simply, if the four contending AFC East teams each win just one more game, they would all make the playoffs if Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee each lose just one more game. Stranger things have happened, but it looks like the AFC East will be strongly represented this post season.

Beast of the East?

The bigger question is who will win the division. As it stands now, the Jets are in the best position at 9-4 with a 4-1 division mark and 7-2 conference record. However, the Jets will find the next two weeks extremely hostile as they take their act on the road to visit Miami and Buffalo before wrapping things up at home against the Patriots.

Miami, also at 9-4, is 4-3 in the division and 6-4 in the conference. They face a must win next Sunday night to avoid being swept by the Jets, especially with undefeated Denver and red-hot Atlanta on the horizon.

Buffalo and the Pats both stand at 8-5 with a 4-3 division mark. New England has the conference edge, 7-4 to 6-4. Each has just one division game remaining, against the Jets. Buffalo will host the slumping Raiders this Sunday, and will finish the season on the road against the Saints, who have been playing very tough defense at home all season long. The Pats will try to extend the 3-10 Rams losing streak to 5 games next Sunday before coming home to face the 49ers, owners of the 27th ranked pass defense in the NFL. (Before Bryant Young went down!)

So what does this all mean? It means that each of the 4 teams in the AFC East race still has a very good chance to win the division. Although the Jets are currently 4-1 in the division, they are the only team who did not sweep the Colts. To make up for that, they MUST sweep either the Pats, Bills, or Dolphins, and that is easier said than done. Miami is undefeated in Pro Player Stadium with two shutouts. After dropping their home opener to the Rams, Buffalo has won 5 straight home games, including wins over Miami, New England, San Francisco, and Jacksonville. The Jets best chance at a sweep will be New England, whom they face at home in the season’s final game.

In the case two or more teams finish with the same record, the NFL tiebreakers are applied. The first tiebreaker is record among the tied teams, followed by division record, then conference record. Since the Colts would certainly not be involved in such a tiebreaker, the Jets would gain the advantage in a three-way tie should they win either of their remaining games to sweep an opponent other than Indy. No other team has a chance to do that. In the event the teams involved are both/all 5-3 & 8-4, the next tiebreaker is record among common opponents. Should the Pats win their next two games, they would stand a great chance to win that tiebreaker.

The only team that all four teams have in common is the Rams. The Jets and Bills both lost to the Rams, Miami beat them in week 7, and New England plays them this Sunday. All but Miami have played the 49ers. The Jets lost to San Fran, while the Bills won. Again, the Pats get San Fran at home in two weeks. All but the Jets played the Saints. New England and Miami both won, and Buffalo has to play them in New Orleans in week 17. A chart would better depict the "common opponent" tiebreakers.

You can now see that if the Pats win their next two, they will own this third and potential final tiebreaker against the Jets and Bills, and will be no worse than tied with Miami should Miami spoil Denver’s undefeated season and upset the Falcons at home. The 4th tiebreaker is net points scored in divisional games, but let’s not go there just yet. I hope the above has cleared things up for a few of you, but for some I’m sure I’ve made things worse.

What does this mean to the Pats?

If the Pats win out, they’ll be 11-5. Either Miami or the Jets will lose next week. Let’s hope it’s the Jets. Miami will have a very tough time beating Denver and Atlanta, so let’s assume the Dolphins finish 11-5 as well. 10-6 looks much more likely for the Fish. The Jets would be 9-5 should they lose next week, and would need to win in Buffalo to keep pace with New England and/or Miami. Someone has to lose the Jets/Bills game, but with New England getting a crack at the Jets either way, that game really doesn’t matter unless the Jets beat Miami, in which case I’m a huge Doug Flutie fan on Saturday the 19th! Since New England is currently tied with the Bills and owns the tie-breaking advantage with Buffalo, it doesn’t really matter what Buffalo does as long as the Pats keep winning.

Best case scenario would have the Dolphins beating the Jets next week, then losing to either Denver or Atlanta, hopefully both. Should that happen, and the Pats win out, they would be the AFC East Champs for the third consecutive time, even if Buffalo also finishes 11-5. The ultimate scenario would be to have the Jets lose all three remaining games and miss the playoffs yet again. I could see the New York Post headline now: "Same Old Jets."

I’ll do my best to keep you updated on this quagmire each week. Stay tuned, and buckle up!