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For 9/5/2003

Hold that thought...

As I enjoyed my last few days of the NFL offseason this past Labor Day weekend on Cape Cod, I knew I had to get to my long overdue season preview column when I returned home. I was in traffic about 1 mile shy of the Sagamore Bridge when my plans for that column changed - the Pats had released Lawyer Milloy.

How could the Pats have let it come to this? Wasn't there some other way the Patriots could have saved cap space? Was every other option exhausted and every stone truly left unturned in an effort to keep the heart and soul of the Patriots defense on the roster? Only the Patriots can answer that question for sure, but while no one believes the Patriots are better off without Milloy - you have to think that if the Patriots really wanted Milloy on their 2003 roster he'd still be here.

This move was not about whether or not Milloy could contribute to the 2003 Patriots, clearly he could. Even if he's not the player he was a few years ago, he's still one of the top players at his position in the entire league. This move was also more than a simple matter of two sides disagreeing on fair compensation. A cap number of over $5 Million is far too much for a strong safety no matter what the caliber, but again, there were surely other options that the Patriots simply chose not to exercise.

To be fair, part of the blame here resides with Milloy as well. While you've got to respect a guy for standing firm and refusing to renegotiate for even a penny less - the Patriots' overtures were very likely competitive with the $15M 4-year deal Milloy inked on Wednesday. If Milloy wanted to remain a Patriot - he could have. Don't criticize the Patriots, or any other team, for asking a player to renegotiate unless you also believe that players such as Donald Hayes, "Bid Daddy" Wilkinson, or Sean Gilbert ought to refund their signing bonuses to their respective former employers.

While I don't doubt for a second Belichick's sincerity when he says this was the toughest cut of his career, you won't find BB second-guessing himself either. Belichick has proven that he knows what he's doing - particularly on defense. If Belichick thought that his chances of getting back to the playoffs would be better with whatever options B, C, and D may have been, that's what he would have done.

While Milloy was (and is) an exceptional football player, be reminded that safety is the lowest paying defensive position in the NFL. On the open market, the best the Patriots could receive in compensation for the franchised Tebucky Jones was a mid 3rd round draft choice - and the contract he signed with the Saints is also on par with what the Bills are paying Milloy. How many strong safeties do you see drafted in the 1st round year to year? Prior to signing Milloy, the Bills were heralded for their rebuilding effort on defense and many publications picked them to win the division. Who were their starting safeties? Did anyone care to ask? Did the fact that Coy Wire and Pierson Prioleau were Buffalo's men in the middle detract from these prognostications?

While Buffalo was quick to pick up a Pro-Bowler this time around, they were on the other side of the fence a few years ago when Bills' stalwarts Andre Reed, Thurmon Thomas, Bruce Smith, and Ted Washington were either sent packing or not resigned as they attempted to replace expensive veteran experience with more cap friendly youth and potential. Even recently, Buffalo allowed promising young DE Marcellus Wiley to walk away without receiving any compensation in return. Buffalo may have hit the jackpot in getting a player of Milloy's caliber added to their roster, but they'll be the last team to say the Patriots made a mistake - the Bills and the rest of the NFL are all too aware of the difficult decisions that all teams must face when dealing with the salary cap. This type of high profile parting-of-the-ways is the norm, not the exception, in the NFL from year to year.

A nearly identical scenario played itself out in San Diego during the offseason, where former Pro Bowl safety Rodney Harrison was inexplicably no longer in the Chargers' plans. Harrison had spent his entire 9-year career in San Diego, and following four of those seasons was voted by his teammates as the defensive player of the year. He played last season through pain with an injured groin, yet was replaced by former Arizona Cardinal Kwamie Lassiter - three years the senior of the now 30-year old Harrison. Go figure - but Harrison is a Patriot now for about the same money that the Bills will pay Lawyer Milloy.

Just as with Drew Bledsoe a year ago, while it will be hard to see Lawyer in another uniform, it's without question that all of Patriot Nation wishes him well. We'll have to wait until December 27 to give him a standing ovation in Gillette Stadium, but there's no question that no matter what happens this coming Sunday or this season, he'll deserves it.

Moving on...

Even without Lawyer Milloy on the roster, ask yourself these questions: Is the Patriots defense that will take the field on September 7 a better unit than the 30th ranked squad of 2002? Is the collective loss of Lawyer Milloy, Tebucky Jones and Otis Smith greater than the value added by Roosevelt Colvin, Ted Washington, Rodney Harrison, Assante Samuel, Eugene Wilson and Ty Warren? If you were to look to improve this team as it stands today within the limits of the salary cap, would your first move be to bring in a Pro Bowl strong safety?

This is a team that one year removed from a Super Bowl championship failed to make the playoffs on the 3rd tiebreaker in 2002. That's a hard pill to swallow - and credit the Patriots front office for revamping a defense that simply didn't get it done last year. Not only did they in bring in new personnel, but they'll deploy a 3-4"ish" defense that will better play to the strengths of holdovers Ted Johnson, Mike Vrabel, Tedi Bruschi and most notably Richard Seymour.

The offense stays more or less the same. While the starters on the offensive line are fairly solid, health is a major concern. The Patriots do not have much depth, and with Damien Woody and Joe Andruzzi banged up to begin the season, the coaching staff has to be holding their collective breath.

The only good news about the running game is that it can't get much worse. I've read in more than a few spots that Antowain Smith's drop in production was simply a matter of his not receiving as many carries as he did the previous year. While it's true the Patriots spent more 4th quarters playing catch up than running out the clock in 2002, the fact remains that while 3rd and 1 and 3rd and 2 were running downs in 2001, Smith did not get it done in those situations in 2002. The Patriots don't need Smith or Kevin Faulk to rush for 1,600 yards for the offense to be successful; they simply need them to move the chains. Failing to gain a 1st down on 3rd and 1 is bad enough. Losing 2 yards on 1st and 10 running play is even worse. Like I said at the top, it can't get much worse.

On the receiving end, the receiving core of Troy Brown, David Patten, and Deion Branch remains intact. The ineffective Donald Hayes has been replaced by enigmatic rookie Bethel Johnson, and David Givens appears to have made significant strides coming off a very quiet rookie year. The pass catching versatility of fullback Marc Edwards will be missed, but the hard-nosed (Gash-like) attitude of Fred McCrary is a welcome addition, while veteran Larry Centers fits right into Charlie Weis idea of a fullback - a man who can effectively pick up the blitz as well as find the open zones for screens, misdirection plays, and dump-offs.

While the Patriots are certainly not a team without an Achilles heel, the roster appears more poised to make a playoff run than they did at the end of last season.

Predictions...

While the Patriots appear to have improved, there are 31 other teams in the NFL who would like to think the same. The question is have the Patriots improved enough to win the AFC East - the most competitive division in the NFL?

Last season the Patriots and Jets both finished 9-7. Each team won a road game as they split their head-to-head series, and each team finished 4-2 in the division having split with Miami and swept the Buffalo Bills. In the AFC, the teams finished with identical 6-6 records. So why did the Jets win the division and host a playoff game while the Pats stayed home? In 14 of the 16 games the two teams played against common opponents. While the Patriots went 1-1 against Pittsburgh and Tennessee, the Jets went 0-2 against Jacksonville and Cleveland. That meant that in their common games, the Jets owned a 9 to 8 win advantage.

This isn't to say the Jets didn't deserve to win the division, for after all they did soundly beat the Patriots on the road in December. But are the Jets a team the Patriots must "overtake?" While the Jets did win a home playoff game, weren't they also responsible for the Bears' 3rd and final victory of the season in week 15? Talk about losing Lawyer Milloy, how about the Jets losing WR Laveranues Coles, G Randy Thomas, K Jon Hall, and KR Chad Morton during the offseason?

Let's not forget 3rd and 4th place Miami and Buffalo. As close as New England was to the first place Jets, Miami and Buffalo were not far behind. Miami, in fact, despite their 3rd place finish, were still the consensus "best team" in the division last season, and are the rightful favorites in 2003. The NFL schedule gods have set them up for their annual 6-2 start, but have also set the stage for a collapse in the 2nd half. Can the Dolphins finally turn a good start into a solid playoff push? Talent certainly isn't the question in Miami.

Buffalo is also scary. Factor out games against New England, and Buffalo had the same record as the Dolphins and Jets last season. Can New England count on their 6th and 7th consecutive wins against the Bills this season? As improved as the Patriots are on paper, the Bills may be more so. On the minus side, the Lawyer Milloy story is grabbing all the headlines, but let's not forget that Peerless Price took his 94 receptions and 9 touchdowns to Atlanta. While Moulds remains the #1 threat, can young Josh Reed or Bobby Shaw replace Price's production? How will the Bills replace the 43 receptions Larry Centers made out the backfield last season? Have the Bills done anything to keep Bledsoe upright after suffering 54 sacks last season?

Regardless of who ends up winning the AFC East, you can be assured that once again the difference between 1st and last place will be the slimmest of margins. Just as last year, a single play in a single game could determine the division winner.

In going 9-7 last season, the Patriots were 4-2 within the division and 5-5 on the outside. The schedule is no easier this go around, so to get from 9 wins to 10, the Patriots must improve on one of those two fronts. Sweeping a division opponent while avoiding being swept by another in tough enough. Sweeping two division opponents while avoiding the same fate is nearly impossible in this division - so I'll set the bar once again at 4-2 hoping the Pats can steal one in Buffalo or NY and manage a split with the Dolphins.

It's outside of the division, and in their home games in particular, where the Patriots need to show improvement while holding their own inside the AFC East. Last season the Patriots dropped consecutive home decisions to the Packers and Broncos in two very lackluster efforts. Couple that with the loss to the Jets and the Patriots were a very mediocre 5-3 at home. If the Patriots are serious about getting back to the playoffs, 5 wins at home won't do. It's against the Giants, Cowboys, Titans and Browns where the Patriots must go 3-1 or 4-0, and I think they can. Winning 6 or 7 at home allows one to play .500 ball on the road and still win 11 or 12 games.

I predicted 10 wins for the Patriots last season, which proved too optimistic. I'm going to go ahead and predict a 10-win season again in 2003, and believe it or not I'm factoring in a potential 0-2 start. While the Jets are no pushover even with Testaverde at the helm, this is a team the Patriots must sweep. That would allow for a split with the more potent Buffalo and Miami and a duplication of their 4-2 2002 divisional record. Outside the division, games in Philly and Denver are their two toughest. I like the Pats chances in Indy, and at Houston is a must win. The home games mentioned above are against tough opponents, but if the Pats don't lay any eggs at home like they did against Green Bay, winning 3 of those 4 games is not that unreasonable an expectation.

Add that all together and you're looking at a 10 or 11 win ball club, and in this division, that ought to get you at least a 1st round home playoff game. Steal one in Buffalo, Philly, or Miami and things really start to look up. Drop a home game or two to Tennessee, Cleveland, or the Giants, and home in January is a real possibility.

For the record, I am predicting the Pats to win the AFC East at 10-6, over Miami who I'm also calling on to finish 10-6, followed by Buffalo at 9-7 and the Jets at 7-9.

Also, for the record, I'll be in Buffalo on Sunday. Surprised? I doubt it.

See you next week, and Go Pats!